Mediterranean drought, Tunisian production, and what this means for refined olive contracts.
Two consecutive drought years across Spain, Italy, and Greece have left Mediterranean olive stocks at their lowest point in two decades.
Tunisian production has partially offset European shortfalls, but the country has hit logistical and crushing-capacity limits. Forward curves are pricing in a structural premium through at least the 2027 harvest.
We have moved our refined-olive book onto a fully indexed pricing structure for 2026 deliveries and recommend that food manufacturers do the same to avoid spot exposure to harvest-shock volatility.