Brazilian soy crop sizes, US biodiesel mandates, and the resulting pull on crush capacity.
Soybean crush margins in Brazil and the US are at multi-year highs. The driver is on the oil side, not the meal side — biodiesel and renewable-diesel mandates continue to pull soybean oil into the energy complex.
Brazilian crop sizing for the 2025/26 marketing year now exceeds 170 million tonnes, but oil exports are running 9 percent ahead of last year while meal exports have plateaued.
We expect crush margins to remain supportive through 2026, but caution against extrapolating: any softening of US biodiesel blender credits could reset margins quickly.