Black Sea balances, Argentine origination, and demand-side signals from European refiners.
Sunflower oil balances heading into Q3 2026 are tighter than the seasonal norm. Black Sea origination remains the swing factor for European refiners, with Ukrainian crush yields trending 4 percent below the five-year average.
Argentine offsetting is partial. South American origination has stepped up, but logistics constraints on Paraná river barge movements continue to add two to three weeks of delay versus FOB Black Sea routings.
Demand-side, large European food manufacturers are extending forward cover further into 2027 than in any recent year. We expect this to compress nearby spreads and widen forward curves into Q4 2026.
Our recommendation to institutional buyers: layer cover through Q3 in 25 percent tranches and consider rapeseed crossover hedges for any tonnage that would otherwise be exposed to spot Black Sea pricing.